There’s no hiding it, after a terrific first round of the NHL Playoffs from a betting perspective, Round 2 has been a disaster. I’m 0-4 through the first four games. The good news is, I built up enough of a cushion in Round 1 that I’m still well inside the profitable line.
I’m sitting at 31-22-1 (+8.87 units) heading into tonight’s action.
Let’s try to bounce back as best we can tonight.
Best NHL bets for Thursday, May 3
- Maple Leafs -1.5 (+130) vs. Panthers
- Kraken/Stars OVER 5.5 (+110)
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+130) vs. Panthers
Despite what the final score said, the Maple Leafs largely dominated Game 1 against the Panthers. If you look at expected goals, the Leafs had the advantage, 4.46-2.47. An almost two goal margin.
Toronto also managed the most high-danger scoring chances amongst all teams in their opening game, totaling 20.
The only way the Maple Leafs continue to lose is if Ily Samsonov keeps playing at a subpar level and Sergei Bobrovsky continues to look like his 2016 self when he last won the Vezina Trophy.
But, I can’t see that happening. Regression is coming for Bobrovsky and Samsonov is poised to have a big game tonight after a below average performance on Tuesday.
Not only do the Leafs win, they win with margin.
Give me the Toronto puck line at +130.
Kraken/Stars OVER 5.5 (+110)
Despite a high-scoring Game 1, the total for this game is still set at 5.5 with the OVER juiced to plus-money. So, I’m going to go that direction in tonight’s pivotal Game 2.
It’s important to note that the Seattle Kraken were the best 5-on-5 shooting teams in the NHL this regular season, sporting a shooting percentage of 10.34% during 5-on-5 play. No other team had a 5-on-5 shooting percentage higher than 10%.
Let’s also take into consideration that Philipp Grubauer finally regressed to his usual self in Game 1, and I expect that level of play by him to continue. He had a save percentage of only .886 in the opening game of the series.
Let’s sit back and root for goals in tonight’s Western Conference matchup.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
