NHL best bets today (Stars will close out series vs. Wild)

We got back to our winning ways in the NHL last night and now we’re sitting at 26-12-1 for +11.64 units.

We have four games to watch and bet on tonight and as always, I have a bet locked in for each of them.

Let’s dive into my best bets for tonight.

Best NHL bets for Friday, April 28th

  • Islanders -115 vs. Hurricanes
  • Bruins -175 vs. Panthers
  • Stars +100 vs. Wild
  • Avalanche/Kraken OVER 5.5 (-115)

Islanders -115 vs. Hurricanes

The Hurricanes need to create some kind of offense against one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, but losing Andrei Svechnikov in March and then Teuvo Teravainen in this series is hurting them and will make it tough for them to close things out against the Islanders.

It doesn’t help that the Islanders goaltender, Ilya Sorokin, has been standing on his head this series. He sports an ultra impressive .923 save percentage so far this season, allowing just 14 goals on 169 shots.

It’s also important to note that the Islanders have been winning the battle when it’s 5-on-5, sitting at 2.76 expected goals per 60 minutes while the Hurricanes are sitting at 2.68

New York is also averaging 2.57 more high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

I’ll back the Islanders tonight to win and force a Game 7.

Bruins -175 vs. Panthers

I think the Bruins are poised to close out the series tonight. Not only did they dominate Game 5, but they have been outperforming the Panthers just about every area so far this season.

During 5-on-5 play, the Bruins have a CORSI% of 52.92%, which measures all types of shot attempts. They also have a 51.56% expected goals percentage and a 51.04% high-danger scoring percentage.

Even more importantly, the Bruins special teams have been dominating the Panthers. Boston has six powerplay goals this postseason while Florida has just two.

As valiant of an effort as the Panthers have made, their season ends tonight. I’ll take the Bruins on the moneyline.

Stars +100 vs. Wild

No team has had better special teams in the first round than the Dallas Stars. Through the first five games, they’ve already racked up nine powerplay goals, the most amongst all 16 playoff teams. Meanwhile, the Wild have scored just four powerplay goals while also giving up a shorthanded goal.

5-on-5 play has largely been a toss up as both teams have continued the regular season trend of being two of the best defensive squads in the NHL.

With that being said, we should trust the season long numbers where the Stars had the much better offense. They outranked the Wild in almost every offensive category such as expected goals for, high-danger scoring chances, and shooting percentage.

With Dallas set as a slight underdog, I’m willing to bet on the Stars for them to close out the series tonight and send the Wild packing.

Avalanche/Kraken OVER 5.5 (-115)

Despite there being only five goals in Game 5 between these two teams, I’m going back to the well by betting on the OVER 5.5 in Game 6 tonight.

So far in the postseason, the Avalanche and Kraken rank 5th and 6th in expected goals per 60 minutes. They’re also combining for an average of 63.36 shots on net per 60 minutes.

Still, the main reason I’m making this bet is I have no faith in Philipp Grubauer. Credit to him, he’s been playing extremely well this series, sporting a save percentage of .918.

But, I don’t expect that to continue. He had an .895 save percentage in the regular season and I expect him to return to his normal self at some point in these playoffs and if it happens tonight, we should be well on our way to cashing the OVER.

At 5.5, I’ll bet the OVER tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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