The Toronto Maple Leafs have lost 11 series-clinching games in the NHL Playoffs. The latest of which came in Game 5 against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night.
The probability of that happening is 0.01%. Now, they have to avoid losing a 12th straight when the series heads back to Tampa Bay for Game 6.
Can the Maple Leafs finally break their streak and finish this series off to advance to the next round? Let’s dive into the betting odds for Saturday night’s showdown.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, puck line, and total
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction and pick
The Maple Leafs have been here plenty of times before, and things have not gone well for them. They blew a 3-1 series lead against the Montreal Canadiens two years ago and blew a 3-2 series lead against the Lightning last year.
Now, the pressure is all on them and this group of players have shown they don’t deal well with pressure.
It doesn’t help that the Lightning have outperformed the Maple Leafs this series from an analytics perspective. During 5-on-5 play, the Lightning have a CORSI% of 53.86%, which measures all types of shot attempts both for and against.
They also have an advantage in 5-on-5 expected goals at 2.38-2.36.
During 5-on-5 play for the previous two games in the series that took place in Tampa Bay, the Lightning had an expected goals advantage of 2.53-1.82, despite the Maple Leafs winning both games in overtime.
Things are looking bleak for the Maple Leafs and you won’t find me betting on them.
I’ll take the Lightning to force a Game 7 once again.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.