Whoever had the No. 8 seed Miami Heat taking on the No. 5 seed New York Knicks in the second round of the NBA playoffs in their bracket should go buy a lottery ticket.
Seriously.
The Knicks and Heat both came into their respective first-round matchups as underdogs, but they needed just five games to get past their opponents. New York beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road on Wednesday night and Miami followed suit with a win over the No. 1-seeded Milwaukee Bucks.
Jimmy Butler was the biggest star of the first round, carrying a Heat team that is down Victor Oladipo (torn patellar tendon) and Tyler Herro (broken hand).
The Knicks have a major injury concern of their own, All-Star Julius Randle re-injured his ankle in Game 5 against Cleveland.
The early reports suggest that the injury isn’t as bad as Randle’s first ankle sprain, which actually came against this Heat team, but it’s a tight turnaround for him to be ready for Game 1 on Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden.
If Randle can’t go, Obi Toppin would likely slide into the starting lineup for the Knicks. New York is also hoping that starting shooting guard Quentin Grimes, who missed Games 4 and 5 against Cleveland with a shoulder injury, will be able to play in Game 1.
During the regular season, New York won three of the four meetings between these teams. However, the Heat found a different gear against Miami, mainly with Butler taking over as the best player on the floor.
This series is expected to be close, but who will win it? I have the latest odds and my prediction for Knicks-Heat below:
Heat vs. Knicks series odds
Heat vs. Knicks correct score (Exact outcome odds)
Heat vs. Knicks series game schedule
Game 1: Heat @ Knicks, Sunday, April 30, 1 p.m. ET, TV Channel TBA
Game 2: Heat @ Knicks, Tuesday, May 2, Time TBA, TV Channel TBA
Game 3: Knicks @ Heat, Saturday, May 6, Time TBA, TV Channel TBA
Game 4: Knicks @ Heat, Monday, May 8, Time TBA, TV Channel TBA
*Game 5: Heat @ Knicks, Wednesday, May 10, Time TBA, TV Channel TBA
*Game 6: Knicks @ Heat, Friday, May 12, Time TBA, TV Channel TBA
*Game 7: Heat @ Knicks, Monday, May 15, Time TBA, TV Channel TBA
Heat vs. Knicks series prediction and pick
It’s easy to say that Randle’s health is the key for the Knicks, but in this case it really is.
Let me explain.
The Heat have played Bam Adebayo on Randle when these teams match up, leaving Kevin Love or Caleb Martin at the four spot to defend Mitchell Robinson, who grabbed 11 offensive rebounds in the Knicks’ Game 5 win over Cleveland.
Robinson dominated Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen all season, and now he has a chance to dominate the glass against a smaller Heat team that ranked just 18th in the league in rebounding percentage in the regular season. New York finished second.
If Randle can’t play, Miami can at least use Adebayo to keep Robinson off the glass.
Both of these teams play at a slow pace, so we’re going to see more games where these rosters have to grind out wins, like the Knicks did against the Cavs.
Without Herro, I seriously question how Miami finds consistent scoring after Butler, especially since the Knicks have looked much better defensively in the postseason than Milwaukee did.
Butler has shown that he can single-handedly win the Heat games, and he did it earlier this season in a win over the Knicks.
That being said, the Knicks have home court and are a deeper team. If Grimes and Randle are able to suit up, the team has more bodies it can throw at Butler to force someone else to beat them.
I haven’t even mentioned Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett, who were elite scoring the ball in the Cleveland series.
This series comes down to Butler vs. the Knicks depth. I think New York has the slight edge and wins in seven.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
