For the first time in the postseason, we only have three games to watch and bet on in the NHL tonight.
I went 2-1-1 last night, and if you tailed, I’m hoping you were able to grab the total between the Jets and Golden Knights at 6 so you could get a push.
I’m continuing to bet on every single NHL Playoff game, so let’s dive into my best bets for tonight.
Best NHL bets for Tuesday, April 25th
- Islanders +140 vs. Hurricanes
- Wild/Stars UNDER 5.5 (-120)
- Oilers -1.5 (+120) vs. Kings
Islanders +140 vs. Hurricanes
Despite the Game 4 victory, I’m still concerned about the Hurricanes with the injury to Teuvo Teräväinen.
Also, while the series has been lopsided when it comes to the final score, the Islanders have been performing better than you likely think. For example, during 5-on-5 play, New York has the advantage in expected goal percentage at 52.32%.
The Isles have also managed to limit the ‘Canes to 11.46 high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.
So, with all of that being said, I think the Islanders are worth a bet as underdogs tonight. If they’re able to continue to limit the Hurricanes offensive chances, New York can keep this game close.
With the Hurricanes down one of their top offensive playmakers, the Islanders have the ability to turn this into a defensive dog fight, which is exactly what they want.
I’ll back the Islanders at plus-money tonight.
Wild/Stars UNDER 5.5 (-120)
The series has been as close from an analytics perspective as it has been from a box score perspective. Neither team is giving up much ground, which leaves me looking at the total for betting value tonight.
As we already knew heading into the series, these two teams are some of the best defensive squads in the entire NHL and that belief has held true through the first four games.
It has been a defensive slug fest when the two teams are playing 5-on-5 hockey. The Stars are averaging 2.21 expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play while the Wild are right behind them at 2.18.
While there have been plenty of goals throughout the series, it’s been largely due to the powerplay. There have been a combined 11 powerplay goals so far this series, which is tied for the most amongst all first round playoff series.
As long as neither team gets into too much penalty trouble in Game 5, the analytics show this is going to be a defensive war, so I’m going to go ahead and take the UNDER on Tuesday night.
Oilers -1.5 (+120) vs. Kings
Despite the first four games being extremely close, I’m betting on the opposite for Game 5.
From an analytics perspective, the Oilers have been dominating this series. They have the highest 5-on-5 CORSI% (56.67%) and FENWICK% (58.20%) amongst all 16 playoff teams in the first round. Those two stats measure all types of shot attempts, both for and against.
Also, from an “expected goals” angle, the Oilers have been outperforming the Kings by a margin of 3.76-3.06 per 60 minutes of play.
The only thing holding the Oilers back has been subpar play by their goaltenders, who sport a combined 89.92% save percentage so far this series. It’s not confirmed if we’ll see Stuart Skinner or Jack Campbell in net for Edmonton tonight, but if they get average play from whoever is in net, I think they’ll win with margin and secure the 3-2 series lead.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
