I might finally be turning a corner with my NBA best bets, hitting two picks last night and cashing in on a future on Malcolm Brogdon to win Sixth Man of the Year.
It wasn’t as lucrative as my +20000 ticket on Immanuel Quickley, but that’s why there’s the ability to hedge, so we’re not left holding the bag on an “almost got there” bet.
The Brogdon win pushes us back to over double-digit units on the season, but that can all go away without some strong picks the rest of the postseason. I’m still betting on every game, so let’s dive into Friday night’s action:
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- Boston Celtics -5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Denver Nuggets-Minnesota Timberwolves SGP (+100)
- RJ Barrett UNDER 15.5 Points (+105)
Boston Celtics -5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Hawks
Boston closed as a double-digit favorite in Game 2 of this series, but oddsmakers are expecting a much closer game in Atlanta on Friday night.
I simply don’t see it with how the Hawks have played defensively.
This Boston team isn’t messing around, and Atlanta allowed Boston to shoot 55.8 percent from the field and 45.5 percent from 3-point range in Game 2. The Celtics picked up a sweep in the first round last season, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they do it again this season.
Atlanta (19th in net rating and effective field goal percentage) simply doesn’t have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Celtics if they are going to score at will.
Boston has been dominant against the spread in the last two postseasons, and I think five points is way too short of a line with Trae Young struggling for Atlanta. So far, Boston has dominated every quarter outside of the first quarter of Game 2, and it still somehow won that quarter by three points.
Fade Atlanta on Friday.
Denver Nuggets-Minnesota Timberwolves SGP (+100)
- Jamal Murray 18+ Points (-425)
- Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-475)
- Alternate Total OVER 212.5 (-295)
Jamal Murray: Jamal Murray is coming off a 40-point game in Game 2, and while I like his points OVER at 23.5, I’d rather move the line down in this parlay to just 18. Murray is averaging 20.0 points per game this season, clearing this line in 10 of his last 12 games.
KAT: Since returning from a calf injury, Karl-Anthony Towns has picked up eight or more rebounds in 10 of his 12 games. He’s picked up at least eight in 10 straight, including four straight games with double-digit boards since the start of the play-in tournament.
Total: I like the OVER in general in this game after Game 2 soared past this number with the Wolves finally figuring things out on offense. I’ll move the number 10 points here for the sake of the parlay. The Nuggets’ defensive rating drops from No. 6 to No. 21 on the road, and the Wolves (seventh in pace) should look to get out and run to steal one at home.
RJ Barrett UNDER 15.5 Points (+105)
It appears oddsmakers believe a lot more in RJ Barrett than just about any New York Knicks fan possibly could right now.
I’m not buying it.
All season long, Barrett has been expected to be the third option behind Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson, but he is shooting just 6-for-25 from the field in this series and averaging 10.5 points per game.
The former No. 3 overall pick hasn’t been able to make jump shots, and the Cavs are clogging the paint with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen every chance they get on defense.
Barrett hasn’t shot the 3 well all season, and I don’t expect him to turn things around in this series. Tom Thibodeau gave Barrett plenty of run in Game 2 (33:21) but he still failed to clear this number on 13 shots.
Take the UNDER until we see him have a good playoff game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.