Watch out! I’m hot!
Back-to-back 3-0 NHL sweeps moves me to 10-2 (+7.03 units).
Unfortunately, Gamblor the Gambling God is kind of like Beetlejuice. If you say you’re on a hot streak out loud, he emerges from the depths of hell to smite you and a cold streak ensues.
We’ll test that theory with my NHL picks tonight. Tail them or fade them, it’s up to you.
I have four (4) picks for tonight’s slate, so let’s jump into them.
NHL best bets record-to-date
NHL best bets today (Thursday, January 12)
- Maple Leafs -140 vs. Red Wings
- Kraken +200 vs. Bruins
- Flames -152 vs. Blues
- Golden Knights -130 vs. Panthers
Maple Leafs -140 vs. Red Wings
I understand the Auston Matthews is sidelined for the Maple Leafs, but even with that being the case, this line is disrespectful. It’s not something you usually hear about Toronto, but the Maple Leafs have been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL as of late.
In their last 10 games, the Leafs rank second in expected goals against at 2.49.
The Red Wings, on the other hand, have generally not played well. During the same stretch, the Red Wings rank 25th in CORSI%.
Finally, the Red Wings goaltender, Ville Husso, has struggled lately. He has an .845 save percentage in three starts in January, so I expect the Leafs to fill the net against him tonight.
Kraken +200 vs. Bruins
You want an underdog? How about the Seattle Kraken at +200.
The Boston Bruins hold the best record in the NHL, but some underlying numbers show that they may not be as good as that pristine record indicates. For example, they’re only 17th in the league in CORSI% over their last 10 games and 16th in expected goals for over the same stretch.
Now, they have to face a Kraken team who has been the hottest shooting team in the league. Seattle has a shooting percentage of 14.19% over its last 10 games, while averaging 4.36 goals per game, both of those are league-leading metrics.
At +200, I think the Kraken are worth a shot.
Flames -152 vs. Blues
I jumped on this line last night, verified over at betstamp, but the sportsbooks adjusted overnight. Good news is I still like the Flames at this price. I think they’re the far superior team than the Blues and should be heavy favorites in this game.
It’s time to buy low on the Flames. Their record may not be impressive, but their numbers are showing me they’re about to get hot. Over their last 10 games, they’re second in the NHL in CORSI% and first in expected goals against. They’ve finally got back to playing as well defensively as they did last season.
Only the Coyotes, Ducks, and Canadiens rank lower than the Blues in CORSI%. Calgary may start a winning streak tonight.
Golden Knights -130 vs. Panthers
We need to stop looking at the Panthers as the same team that won the Presidents Trophy last season. They aren’t nearly as good as they were, and they have plenty of holes in their team.
Tonight’s game is a battle between a fantastic defensive team and a subpar defensive team. The Golden Knights are sixth in expected goals against over their last 10 games while the Panthers are 16th.
Florida has also had goaltending issues. Sergei Bobrovsky has a disappointing .894 save percentage this season, including an .886 save percentage on the road and an .878 save percentage in three starts this month.
I love Vegas as a small home favorite.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.