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Top College Basketball Picks Today (How to bet Big 12 basketball on Tuesday)

College football season is over so it’s time to look towards the hardwood for some winners.

College basketball takes center stage for the next three months and conference play is in full swing. There’s a ton of high level matchups including Kansas hosting Oklahoma as the Jayhawks look to maintain their undefeated Big 12 record. Before that matchup, the surprise team of the league, Kansas State, hosts Oklahoma State, who is in need of a quality road win.

Here are my plays and thoughts on the Tuesday night slate.

College basketball betting record to date

58-40-1, +15.95U

College basketball best bets for today

  • Oklahoma State +5.5 vs. Kansas State
  • Oklahoma vs. Kansas UNDER 132.5
  • Florida -1.5 vs. LSU
  • Ole Miss +2 vs. Auburn

Oklahoma State +5.5 vs. Kansas State

This is the perfect buy low-sell high spot. Kansas State’s run through the early part of their Big 12 schedule has been predicated on obscene shot making and variance-filled finishes, including two overtime victories. The team hung 116 on an elite defense on the road in Texas and this is a team that has reached its peak in the market.

Now, they face a top 15 defensive team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Oklahoma State is a physical defense that can extend their ball pressure and hold up against a K-State offense that is middle of the road nationally in terms of turnover rate (155th).

Keep an eye on the status of Oklahoma State big man Moussa Cissé, who missed the team’s loss to Texas on Saturday. Even if he doesn’t play, The Pokes defense still shut down the paint against the Longhorns with a strong outing from Kalib Boone, who had six rebounds and six blocks in that one.

The issue for the Cowboys is if the group can score, but I think this is a great spot to buy low on Oklahoma State’s offense against Kansas State defense that struggles on the defensive glass (217th in DREB%) and foul at a bottom 60 rate.

PICK: Oklahoma State +5.5

Kansas vs. Oklahoma UNDER 132.5

The Sooners are starting to slide after a hot shooting start, their offense is 87th in adjusted offensive efficiency per Bart Torvik since December 20th. When you look at their season long metrics, they are 10th in effective field goal percentage and 37th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom, but this is a team trending in the wrong direction. This could be problematic against a disciplined Kansas team that is going to force Oklahoma to create dribble penetration and finish inside. The team is 232nd in turnover rate and bottom 40 in offensive rebounding rate.

KU should be able to suffocate the OU offense, but the Sooners should be able to keep this game at a methodical tempo due to their ability to clean the glass on the defensive side of the ball (29th in DREB%). Porter Moser’s team is limiting opponents to one of the 20 slowest tempos when they are on defense, meaning they force offenses to work for clean looks. While the Jayhawks potent offense should score, there aren’t going to be enough possessions to get this game over the total.

Give me the under in this Big 12 matchup.

PICK: UNDER 132.5

Florida -1.5 vs. LSU

I was high on Todd Golden’s club heading into the year, but they have been tough to peg so far. However, I think this is a good time to buy them against an LSU team that is far down the SEC totem pole.

LSU’s defense is predicated on their ability to turn opponents over (76th in TO%), but Florida has veteran ball handlers that are 62nd in protecting the ball this season and have an anchor inside in Collin Castleton.

The Tigers are 12th in three-point percentage allowed, but that’s a bit of a mirage for what this defense really is, 86h according to ShotQuality’s adjusted efficiency metric. Overall, I see Florida as a cut above and can offset what LSU thrives at. I’ll take the small road favorite.

PICK: Florida -1.5

Ole Miss +2 vs. Auburn

This game may not be pretty, but I can’t trust Auburn on the road with their sloppy ball handling, which is 226th in the country in turnover rate. They’ll face a tricky Ole Miss defense that runs a zone defense most of the time and can give this Auburn team fits that can’t shoot from the outside. The team is shooting 29% from beyond the arc this season, 330th in the country and I don’t see their offense traveling well, evident last week when they lost at Georgia.

To be clear, Ole Miss has their own offensive issues. The Rebels profile similarly to Auburn, they are 336th in three-point percentage and also turn the ball over a ton. The team has dropped their first three SEC games to three of the best defenses in the country in Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi State, and while Auburn provides another stiff test, I think we see a desperate Ole Miss team get some positive regression in the shot making department at home against an Auburn team that has the shot profile of a 9-6 team rather than the 12-3 one they are, per ShotQuality.

I’ll take the home dog.

PICK: Ole Miss +2

 

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